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This newsletter was published 2.12.2020 at 16:54pm CEST.
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUA strength continues as prices test 30 EUR/EUA. Colder weather forecast and imminent auction supply pause have kept bullish momentum intact. With option expiry next week, prices may test levels above 30 EUR/EUA before that as more than 15 million EUA of open interest at 30 EUR strike can intensify volatility around this level. There are almost no indicators pointing to a correction at the moment. If anything, we might see a technical correction towards 28 on profit taking, however momentum is strong and more likely to result in prices continuing on an upwards path. Correlated energy markets have seen strong buying as well along with global equity markets. Options activity on EUA market keeps signalling conviction of stronger gains in 2021 as call open interest for all maturities in 2021 increased by 38 million in total while puts increased by 20 million EUA during November.
German power prices are up 2.25 EUR/MWh since last week, with the front year contract trading at 42.75 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 3 USD since last week, with the Cal21 contract trading at 62.00 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is up 190 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.2100.
Price development of EUA Dec2020 futures contract