This newsletter was published 27.9.2023 at 16:48pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Price of EUAs is unchanged week-on-week, however market experienced quite a surge after September’s option expiry. Soon after settlement window had closed, market started drifting higher and developed a short-term trend. Carbon rose by more than 5 EUR from last week’s lows and December-2023 futures contract for a moment breached 86 EUR. Despite relatively consistent buying activity, participants could not push the market above strong resistance around that level, which was also aligned with 50-day moving average. Soon after, sellers took initiative again which led to a sharp drop and all gains from last week were lost in one red day. Auctions in the past week provided participants with mixed signals. Auctions on Thursday and Friday cleared well above prevailing spot prices which would indicate increased demand, while Monday’s auction offered some discount. Other markets in European energy complex were quite volatile in the past week as well, however the longer-term trend appears to be bearish. 95 percent full underground gas storages, LNG imports and flow via existing pipelines suggest there is more gas supply than is demand, which might be the main driver for bearishness in most energy commodities.

German power prices are down by 2.45 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 123.30 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 129.00 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are down by 1.450 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 48.600 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 200 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0520.

Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract