This newsletter was published 19.6.2024 at 18:39pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Quarterly options expiry was quite uneventful with the market trading inside the small weekly range between 67.51 and 69.78. Volume was low, which is unusual for a large open interest that we saw especially at 70 EUR strike with 11 million EUAs and 21 million at 65 EUR strike. Only after the options settlement, which was at 69.30 EUR, market started to move higher, catching up to gains made by gas market. The move also contradicts the positioning of funds which increased their shorts to 13.6 million EUAs, an increase of around 3.7 million. This is a 4^th consecutive week where shorts are increasing their position. A month ago, positioning was only 6.6 million EUAs short which also coincides with the highs of the recent multi-moth move up where market crossed 78 EUR/EUA. Even though correlation with gas market has weakened slightly it seems that EUAs are still at the mercy of the mentioned market. The opposite forces might keep the market rangebound until gas starts trending lower. EUAs currently also have bearish technicals as prices are below 50- and 200-day moving averages which could cap further gains.

German power prices are up by 0.25 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 93.80 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 5.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-25 contract trading at 124.00 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are up by 1.000 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-25 trading at 38.150 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 100 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0750.

Price development of EUA Dec2024 futures contract