Carbon Weekly Newsletter

This newsletter was published 10.07.2024 at 21:55pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices have weakened in the past week as the technical hurdles around 71 EUR proved too strong a resistance. 200- and 50-day moving averages are hovering around those areas and have already been tested and rejected a week prior. The current pullback triggered a continuation of the downtrend that started early June when prices dipped below 66 EUR. Gas prices have been trending down in tandem with EUAs, further capping any gains. Daily auctions have continuously cleared below secondary market prices, a sign of lower demand and the market has rarely traded higher than the auction result at the end of the day. Interestingly, investment funds have decreased their net short position for the first time in many weeks, which could be a sign of a range-bound market. Levels around 66 EUR have been previously supported and further support could come from the ongoing European heatwave in the short term as power demand surges. UKA market has also seen some recent weakness but is constricted within a trading range like EUAs. With summer months historically exhibiting decreased volatility, we might be nearing the end of recent weakness.

German power prices are down by 4.58 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 88.71 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 4.75 USD since last week, with the Cal-25 contract trading at 109.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.835 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-25 trading at 36.000 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 20 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0820.

Price development of EUA Dec2024 futures contract

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