This newsletter was published 7.5.2025 at 17:36pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Bullish momentum in European energy commodities has pushed EUAs above the 70 EUR mark for the benchmark December 2025 futures contract. After a period of relative stagnation, carbon prices received a boost from the absence of primary supply last week, along with recent news suggesting that the EU plans to fully cut ties with Russian energy. The phase-out is reportedly set to be completed by the end of 2027. These developments provided strong support for the recent upward trend, despite mixed short-term fundamentals. Carbon prices even broke through the 200-day moving average; however, it remains to be seen whether the trend will continue higher or if this key technical level will act as resistance, triggering a more significant retracement. The latest CoT report shows that investment fund activity is starting to pick up again. Week-on-week, funds added roughly 4 million tonnes of net length, a sizable increase, especially during a week with limited supply. One could argue that in order to sustain upward momentum, investors will need to continue accumulating positions at a relatively aggressive pace. The recent auctions offered no surprises, clearing in line with long-term averages. Other related energy markets are also showing strength. Front-month gas prices have climbed back to 35 EUR per MWh, while German power futures for the 2026 calendar year remain firmly above 80 EUR per MWh.

German power prices are up by 5.00 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 86.70 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.80  USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 107.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 1.725 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 33.225 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is unchanged since last week and is currently trading at 1.1350.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract