This newsletter was published 10.9.2025 at 17:32pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs have risen sharply since the end of August, as market participants took advantage of the approaching compliance deadline at the end of the month. Auctions have been clearing strongly, with healthy cover ratios. Adding to the momentum, the market broke out of a key technical structure, fuelling further bullish sentiment. This surge pushed prices to their highest levels since late February. December 2025 futures climbed above 77 EUR, while December 2026 contract eyed 80 EUR level. However, this rally was not driven solely by compliance demand. Financial institutions played a major role in pushing prices higher. The most recent CoT report showed a significant increase in investment funds’ net long positions, which jumped by more than 22 million tonnes in just one week—bringing their total to over 50 million tonnes. In contrast, Commercial Undertakings reduced their net long exposure by more than 19 million tonnes. The market has also shown remarkable resilience during pullbacks, with even minor dips quickly attracting buying interest and sustaining bullish pressure. Interestingly, other markets in the energy complex did not mirror this move, as the correlation between EUAs and TTF weakened.

German power prices are up by 1.75 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.70 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 0.60 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 102.95 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.645 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 32.595 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 40 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1720.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract