This newsletter was published 5.11.2025 at 17:42pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

A shift in fundamentals over the weekend triggered strong buying pressure, driving EUAs for the December 2025 futures contract firmly above 80 EUR. Monday’s weather forecast added further bullish momentum, with temperatures expected to drop and renewable power generation projected to fall below seasonal averages. This early strength was reinforced by a robust result in the European auction, which cleared at a premium to the secondary market. The outcome propelled EUAs even higher, reaching an intraday high of 81.75 EUR. Notably, such a sharp daily move of around 3 EUR has become increasingly rare amid historically low implied volatility. The market’s steady ascent, with virtually no pullbacks, suggests strong underlying demand for EUAs. The last comparable move occurred on June 19, although market sentiment on that occasion was distinctly bearish. Other markets in the energy complex also displayed signs of resilience. The front-month TTF contract breached 32.50 EUR/MWh, while German power futures for calendar year 2026 climbed above 90 EUR for the first time since late June. The latest CoT report showed only modest adjustments in fund positioning, with speculative players increasing their net long exposure by approximately 3 million tonnes week-on-week basis. As winter approaches and expectations for colder weather build, it will be important to watch how price action develops in the coming days. The combination of tightening fundamentals and heightened seasonal demand could set the stage for continued strength in the EUA market.

German power prices are up by 2.82 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 90.32 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 0.20 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 104.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.090 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 30.925 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD down by 180 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1480

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract