This newsletter was published 19.11.2025 at 16:51pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Despite recent drop in global risk-on assets, EUAs have remained resilient and continue trading within a well-established bullish trend. Investment funds appear eager to keep allocating capital and expanding their long positions, showing little hesitation even in the face of developments over the past week. One of the most significant updates was the latest BNEF report, which in its worst-case scenario projects EUA prices at 61 EUR per tonne in 2026. This represents a sharp downward revision from the previous base-case estimate of 87 EUR per tonne, which is an unusually large adjustment. A likely factor behind this shift could be the record-high net long positioning held by investment funds. Week-on-week, the funds increased their exposure by more than 4 million tonnes, bringing total net long holdings to over 100 million tonnes. Interestingly, while the market took notice of the BNEF report, its assessment appears to have been largely ignored in price action. The bullish tone may also be reinforced by strong primary auctions over the past week, which continue to clear at a premium to the secondary market. Any minor price dips are still being quickly bought, helping EUAs remain within a technically defined upward channel that has held firm for several months. Another factor supporting a bullish outlook is the possibility of gas supply constraints over the winter, particularly if conditions turn prolonged and severe. However, gas futures have yet to reflect this risk in their pricing and continue trading near 30 EUR per MWh on both front-month and calendar 2026 contracts.

German power prices are up by 0.65 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 89.60 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 2.45 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 101.55 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.185 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 29.940 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD down by 30 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1550.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract