This newsletter was published 28.1.2026 at 16:27pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The carbon market stabilised over the past week after finding firm support at 83.52 EUR for the December 2026 futures contract. Following the sharp sell-off seen earlier, prices moved largely sideways, signalling a pause in downside momentum as selling pressure temporarily eased. While the market briefly regained strength and traded back above the 90 EUR level, this move proved short-lived. Sellers quickly re-emerged, pushing prices back below 88 EUR. This price action suggests that upside attempts continue to face some resistance and that overall market conviction could remain limited at least short-term. Investment fund positioning continues to be one of key drivers of short-term market dynamics. According to the latest data, net long exposure declined by 13.5 million tonnes, to approximately 112.5 million tonnes. While this reduction has helped to alleviate some of the pressure associated with overcrowded positioning, exposure remains elevated by historical standards and may continue to contribute to heightened volatility. Other market in the energy complex delivered mixed signals over the week. Front-month TTF prices were particularly volatile, surging from around 35 EUR/MWh to above 43 EUR/MWh earlier in the week before retreating sharply to approximately 38 EUR respectively. Weather fundamentals remain supportive for gas demand; however, EU underground gas storage levels currently stand at around 44 percent full — well below levels observed last year and below the two-year average. This comparatively tight storage situation continues to underpin the gas market despite recent price swings, especially given Europe’s reliance on LNG and broadly increased demand in Asia and the United States due to harsh winter conditions. Primary market demand in daily EUA auctions was relatively subdued, with most auctions clearing at or at a slight discount to the secondary market. This could be interpreted as a mildly bearish signal; however, sentiment across global risk-on assets remains broadly positive.

German power prices are down by 0.50 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 85.55 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices up up by 2.50 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 98.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.415 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 26.150 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD up by 210 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1940

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract