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This newsletter was published 8.3.2023 at 16:44pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
Past week was quite volatile, not due to any major news events, but most likely production and option hedging before first quarterly expiry this year. Demand for EUAs has been persistently high recently. Market keeps finding buyers at many levels, especially near rounded numbers, which might be indicative of compliance and utility buying. Confirmation of this thesis is also sharp rebounds from the lows, when spot EUAs transacted below 90 EUR per tonne. Participation on daily auctions is still high, despite price being near record levels. At the moment market also seems more sensitive to bullish news than bearish and it should not come as surprise if elevated prices prevail. Today, energy markets were affected by the news coming from EDF, which stated that they found cracks in one of their nuclear reactors. Gas prices reacted just a bit, while EUA and power went higher with confidence. Considering all factors that are currently being present in the market, EUAs could remain supported going forward, especially due to compliance buying. Similar market dynamics has been happening in UKAs, caused by colder air mass that has affected energy consumption. UKA auction cleared more than 1.5 GBP above prevailing spot prices, causing sharp spike to the upside, which could be turning into a longer-term trend.
German power prices are down by 7.20 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 139.55.75 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 30.00 USD since last week, with the Cal24 contract trading at 128.00 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is down by 110 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0560.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract