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This newsletter was published 17.5.2023 at 16:58pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
Past week was quite uneventful, especially if we consider raw price action of EUAs. Market has been range bound for some time already, recently with more and more contracting volatility. Buyers have been stepping in when price dipped to around 86 EUR per tonne, while sellers took initiative at higher prices, roughly at 89 to 90 EUR respectively. There was also a shift on daily auctions. Past week was quite bullish considering results only, however market did not start behaving differently and it remained range bound. On the other hand, two auctions this week offered substantial discounts, which caused a sharp dip on Monday and consolidation at the upper band of range on Tuesday. This information may be difficult to interpret as we are entering a short-term period of limited supply and price remained unaffected so far. Next EUA auction is scheduled for May 22, and such periods have been historically at least supportive of price, if not bullish. Other markets in European energy complex have been mostly trending down. Benchmark German power futures for calendar year 2024 found some resistance at 150 EUR per MWh, which might be due to bearish fundamentals, low spot prices and relatively cheaply priced shorter-term futures. Similar observation can be made for front month gas prices, which are trading just above 31 EUR per MWh, indicating there might be enough supply to meet short term demand.
German power prices are down by 9.75 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 140.25 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 13.70 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 111.05 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are down by 5.590 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 50.670 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 170 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0820.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract