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This newsletter was published 26.7.2023 at 16:14pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
Uptrend that has occurred in EUAs has offered only one major pullback a few days ago, after market breached 92.50 EUR per tonne. Reasons for such rally could be many, but most obvious being frontloading before halved auctions in August. What is more, bullish trend also prevails in power and gas markets, which could be also contributing to recent surge in demand. Price for front month TTF has increased by more than 20 percent during the last two weeks due to possible supply concerns. Europe has become more reliant on LNG supply and is in that regard competing with Asia for supply. However, short term fundamentals would suggest that there is more than enough supply, especially spot, as underground storages remain full for the time being. Auctions in the past week have been in all instances strong and have cleared at or above prevailing spot prices, even when the market was on daily high. This could be interpreted as a bullish sigh, since participants were in most cases willing to pay premium price to get into position or they just had to buy spot EUAs. August has been in many cases very bullish period for EUAs, despite halved supply being to some extend already calculated into the price. One should not forget that all-time high in EUAs was reached in August 2022, however fundamental outlook last year was very different in comparison to this summer.
German power prices are up by 3.70 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 144.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 24.75 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 133.50 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are up by 1.795 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 53.150 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 150 points since last week and is currently trading 1.1070.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract