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This newsletter was published 23.8.2023 at 16:43pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
Carbon breached 90 EUR mark for the first time in August, just days before increased auction supply in September and third quarterly option expiry this year. Strong momentum in energy markets and uncertainty that has been caused by LNG supply concerns, might have caught many traders on the wrong side of the market, and some had to close their shorts on a way up. The main reason for volatility in gas markets was likely an industrial strike at Australian LNG facility, causing panic, especially in front month gas and power futures, as well as in carbon markets. EUAs were affected to some extent, however a larger move happened in UKAs. December-2023 UKA futures contract rose by more than 25 percent from the lows in only a few trading sessions and traded again above 50 GBP per tonne. The move was one-sided, with bids lifting the market consistently, offering no pullback. Offers only started to appear in the market just before the bi-weekly UKA auction, which cleared near the market. Volatility and liquidity in EUAs have started to pick up again and it with them price discovery. Auctions in September will be substantially larger in comparison not only to August but other months in 2023 as well, which might have an impact on price.
German power prices are down by 3.24 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 139.00 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 2.30 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 129.30 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are down by 0.800 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 54.500 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 70 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0850.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract