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This newsletter was published 3.5.2023 at 17:03pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUAs have been trading at roughly the same price as last week, however this information alone cannot sufficiently describe what has been happening in the past two days. Carbon has found quite some buying interest just above technical support at 200-day moving average, around 85.60 EUR per tonne. Trading has been calm on Monday and Tuesday, however, a bullish news surprised market participants just after the auction. It was reported that EU will not be able to auction additional quantities from the Innovation Fund in 2023, due to legislative procedures. 40 million more allowances from the Fund will be therefore auctioned no sooner than in 2024. The news caused aggressive buying and market went parabolic. In only two hours it made 5 EUR move, before topping at 90.67 EUR per tonne. Such rallies usually offer no pullbacks and tend to revert at least to some degree. In this case EUAs created a complete reversal and sellers took initiative again. Rounded levels could not hold immense selling pressure and market started eyeing 85 EUR again. It did not take long before level, that held several times ran out of bids and EUAs started trading lower. Mid-term fundamentals, especially weather might not be supportive of EUAs, however one should not expect market moving in a straight line, as seen recently.
German power prices are up by 1.50 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 143.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 135.00 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are up by 0.635 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 54.985 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 30 points since last week and is currently trading 1.1050.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract