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This newsletter was published 7.6.2023 at 17:33pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
European energy markets remain affected by bearish fundamentals which has been reflecting in down-trending prices during the last week. EUAs have not been an exemption in that regard and with help of record net short position by investment funds, printed almost six-month low at 78.01 EUR. However, EUAs did not stay there for too long. A change in market dynamics might have started earlier this week on Monday, just after rejection from the lows. Bids started to appear more aggressive than offers and market soon traded at 80 EUR again. Despite the rally, daily auction cleared at a premium to secondary market again. This might have indicated that short sellers started closing their positions aggressively and EUAs went parabolic a few minutes after. In only two hours carbon gained additional 3 EUR, before creating a daily high at 83.28 EUR respectively. The next day prices settled lower, which might have happened due to large discount on daily auction. However, a complete reversal to the upside happened today just after release of weekly CoT report. It indicated that investment funds almost doubled their net short exposure to more than 25 million allowances. In such instances markets tend to become more sensitive to the upside, especially if they are lacking liquidity. The main risk could therefore be to the upside, especially if fundamentals change from bearish to bullish.
German power prices are down by 0.51 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 124.00 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 9.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 105.50 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are down by 1.610 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 42.995 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 50 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0710.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract