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This newsletter was published 24.6.2020 at 18:49pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUA prices almost touched 2020 highs in a relentless rally. Speed and magnitude of the move from the March lows are almost a mirror image to the move from 2018, when prices gained nearly 80% in 3 months. The strong move is difficult to explain from a fundamental perspective but technical indicators have been bullish for weeks now. Since mid-May, the trend has been quite stable and pronounced. Many are asking when this trend will turn around, but by the looks of it, we are in a very strong bull market right now. Since we have breached so many resistances on the way, there is no reason to stop and reverse now. The trend will continue until it gets broken. This is an ambiguous statement but trying to call a top at this point seems to be futile. Even a weak auction result did not rattle the markets. Tuesday’s auction cleared at around 0.25 EUR discount to the secondary market but EUAs started to move back up only a minute after the result was published and settled near the daily highs. However, it is worth to be cautious in the next weeks. The big 2018 rally ended in a massive 30% drop in only 4 days. It is unlikely that the history will repeat identically but is important to remember that increased volatility generally works in both directions.
German power prices are up 2.10 EUR/MWh since last week, with the front year contract trading at 40.60 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices have are up 2.30 USD/tonne since last week, with the Cal21 contract trading at 56.25 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is up by 50 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1270.
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