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This newsletter was published 9.12.2020 at 16:44pm CEST.
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUAs are holding the gains with a positive outlook approaching year end. With the final UK auction that took place today and only two EU and one DE upcoming auctions remaining, supply will be drastically decreased in the following weeks. No updates on restart date of 2021 auctions have been seen so far. This uncertainly could prove difficult for utilities that hedge their CO2 exposure in real time. As demand will be present during the period of no auctions, markets may continue to drift higher. Prices are already near yearly and also all-time highs which might increase market imbalance. Rising prices could lure in technical traders that may add to the buying pressure as we near 31 EUR/EUA. There is uncharted price territory above that and making forecasts for how high the prices may move will be a difficult task. At this point there are no signals that would point to weakening of the price and market is staying well supported on any dip.
German power prices are up 0.65 EUR/MWh since last week, with the front year contract trading at 43.40 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.70 USD since last week, with the Cal21 contract trading at 63.70 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is down by 20 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.2080.
Price development of EUA Dec2020 futures contract