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This newsletter was published 12.4.2023 at 17:11pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
Carbon emission allowances remain firmly anchored above 95 EUR due to strong bullish fundamentals that have been prevailing during the last fortnight. Recent daily auctions have all but one cleared well above secondary market, indicating higher than usual demand. Seasonal buying by compliance entities has created a strong up-trend that could remain present till mid to late April. Every larger dip has been bought, while volumes remained low due to Easter holidays which has impaired liquidity. Current market dynamics could lead to one more spike in prices, maybe even towards 100 EUR per tonne, however short-term weather forecasts might not be so supportive of the thesis. Precipitation that is expected to hit central Europe in the coming days might positively affect hydro power production and relief some bullish tendencies in EUAs. Gas prices are flat, while coal lost some momentum from last week. Other major markets in European energy complex remain well supported, especially Cal-24 German power futures and Brent crude oil, after OPEC+ decided to cut production by 1,16 million barrels a day. Relatively low crude prices in comparison to April 2022 could have greatly affected CPI data, which fell to 5 percent year-on-year in the US, the lowest since June 2021. Bond markets have been pricing lower inflation for some time already, which could probably influence key interest rates across the globe and stimulate economic activity.
German power prices are up by 5.25 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 153.90 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 11.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 136.00 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are up by 1.485 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 57.285 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 40 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0980.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract