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This newsletter was published 6.9.2023 at 20:44pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUA prices have moved lower since last week with the start of increased auction volume. Despite other energy market dropping considerably more, EUAs are showing relative strength. Gas has been especially weak and accelerated down on the news that scheduled strikes at LNG plants in Australia will be delayed. The news from Australia has been driving the market for two weeks now, however the initial gain has been wiped out. Front month prices of UK gas are down over 35% in the past ten trading sessions. EUA, on the other hand, has shown solid bid interest on the auctions which have cleared close to secondary market. Investment funds are increasing their conviction on further weakening of EUAs as they increased their net short position to around 12 million EUA, up around 3 million EUA since last week. They have been correct for the second week in a row, though if position keeps increasing at this pace and prices continue to move down only slightly, we could see short squeeze potential that could move prices up aggressively in the short term.
German power prices are down 9 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 127.70 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 7 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 121.50 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are down by 3.70 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 50.70 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 210 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0720.
Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract