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This newsletter was published 5.10.2022 at 18:11pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUAs seem to have find at least some short-term support at around 65 EUR, after trading in narrow range for a few days. Despite negative sentiment in global markets, EUA prices found the way up already earlier this week, due to thin order book and one-sided price action. Market is caught in a relatively tight range for the past few weeks. Exchange traded volumes are still decreasing almost daily which shows that participation in the market is waning, similar to all other energy markets. Next week we might see even lower volumes due to a carbon conference taking place in London, where most carbon traders usually attend. In the past, it has happened that auctions during those days did not see enough demand to successfully clear. Judging by the already low cover ratios in the last days, auction in the next week will get tested for resilience. If one of them fails to clear, we might get a signal for continuation of the downtrend below 60 EUR/EUA. EUAs are still very sensitive on any news regarding REPowerEU, power prices or gas nominations. Lower gas prices on front contracts could provide some ease on utilities, which could eventually drive power prices lower, if demand will not shoot up at the end of the year.
German power prices are down by 72.00 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 430.00 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 4.00 USD since last week, with the Cal23 contract trading at 283.00 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is up by 240 points since last week and is currently trading 0.9860.
Price development of EUA Dec2022 futures contract