This newsletter was published 28.4.2021 at 6:54pm CEST.

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices reached another record amid late compliance buying. Prices have gained around 6 EUR throughout April with almost no pullbacks. Gains were steady and new highs were seen almost every day. Some are speculating that prices could dip in the beginning of May when the buying subsides, however other energy markets have held up quite well, moving in tandem with EUA. If this broad market strength persists, any downside attempts will be short lived and it may take longer to actually see a turnaround in prices. Many are yet to receive free allocation and if this drags out until summer there might be no supply in the market to push prices lower until then. The only supply will be auctions but those volumes might get easily absorbed as more and more new entrants come to the market. Evidence of this is seen in carbon ETF called KRBN from the US which has seen steady inflows and is already holding more than 2.5 million EUAs. This gives market access to a broader base of investors which are normally long-term holders. Some analysts have started coming up with above 100 EUR/EUA price forecasts until 2030. As long as the broad optimism continues, uptrend will prevail.

German power prices are up 0.50 EUR/MWh since last week, with the front year contract trading at 59.00 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are unchanged since last week, with the Cal22 contract trading at 75.30 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is up 70 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.2100.

Price development of EUA Dec2020 futures contract