Carbon Weekly Newsletter

This newsletter was published 19.7.2023 at 16:14pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Carbon emission allowances finally broke out of two-week lasting price range on Tuesday, just minutes before the settlement window. Volatility has been contracted for some time and expansion appears to be happening the upside. Market climbed as high as 88.32 EUR on Tuesday afternoon, creating a triple high, before rejection and final settlement at 87.35 EUR per EUA. After nine consecutive settlements below 87 EUR market finally settled above the level, which could be interpreted as a bullish sign. On Wednesday EUAs expanded further to the upside, after Polish auction cleared at a premium to secondary market. It seems that neutral fundamentals, and roughly flat positioning of financial institutions have provided more than enough support. Prices between 85 and 86 EUR per EUA have attracted many willing buyers, and selling pressure has been absorbed with relative ease. Correlation between EUA, power and gas is still very prevalent, as they have been moving in the same direction simultaneously, especially front month products. The main reason for such bullish pressure in gas and power might be supply concerns, despite relatively full storages. Auctions in the past week have been in all instances but one very strong and have cleared well above secondary market. Participation on them was also very good, not only in July but also in general terms. Cover ratios of near factor two in very thin market might probably meant that EUAs have been more sensitive to the upside. Moreover, August and halved auctions are just around the corner and in most cases, market went up substantially during that period.

German power prices are up by 10.25 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 140.80 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 6.60 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 108.75 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are up by 3.855 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 51.355 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 120 points since last week and is currently trading 1.1220

Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract

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