Carbon Weekly Newsletter

This newsletter was published 22.5.2024 at 17:35pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Uptrend in energy commodities continues as markets spike to the highest prices in almost five months. Benchmark German power futures for calendar year 2025 breached important level at 100 EUR per MWh, while front month TTF gas transacted above 34 EUR respectively. Underground gas storage levels have been consistently rising, and are currently sitting at 67 percent full, which is a bit higher than same time last year. Despite that, many analysts have been reporting nervousness in the gas markets. EUAs have been following the narrative and have been trading higher almost every week since late February. Despite technical and psychological resistance at 75 EUR, market broke up to the upside violently, triggering several buy stop orders. Moreover, investment funds increased their net short exposure on price up tick, according to CoT report. Usually, EUAs moved in a direction of funds activity and such divergence could make the market even more sensitive. Daily auctions on averaged offered no discounts below secondary market, despite lower cover ratios. So far short-positioned participants have taken advantage of majority of larger dips, however an almost equal long exposure could start affecting the market dynamics, which could lead to interesting price development.

German power prices are up by 8.29 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 100.04 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 9.15 USD since last week, with the Cal-25 contract trading at 120.40 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are up by 3.275 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-25 trading at 38.600 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 15 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0835.

Price development of EUA Dec2024 futures contract

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