Carbon Weekly Newsletter

This newsletter was published 20.11.2024 at 15:54pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs are sustaining their bullish trend, with prices steadily rising. This upward momentum has aligned the 14, 50, and 200-day moving averages, all now pointing up. Investment funds have shifted to a net long position after over a year of shorts. The strength may be driven by rising gas prices, which remain closely correlated with EUA performance. Options data also reflect a bullish bias, with the largest open interest at the 90 EUR strike, representing nearly 24 million EUA in call options. The second-largest open interest is at 70 EUR, near the current market level, which could keep prices consolidating around this range in the short term. Historically, the year’s end sees strong support as participants front-load volumes ahead of the mid-December supply pause. Auctions, as usual, will be suspended for about four weeks, with the last scheduled for December 16. Additionally, colder temperatures are forecast, with Arctic air set to move into Europe next week. Overall, the market appears poised for a robust finish to the year.

German power prices are up by 7.55 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 98.90 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 3.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-25 contract trading at 126.25 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 2.700 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-25 trading at 44.700 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 50 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0540.

Price development of EUA Dec2024 futures contract

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