This newsletter was published 5.3.2025 at 17:51pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices have experienced notable fluctuations in the past few weeks, with bears predominantly in control. Prices have eased from the mid-80s to firmly below 70 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. This decline is likely driven by a combination of political developments, market fundamentals, and broader market dynamics. One of the key factors influencing EUA prices has been the drop in European natural gas prices. However, some analysts have begun to suggest that the correlation between the two markets may soon weaken. While the gas market remains tight, with storage levels falling below 38 percent in recent weeks, the supply of EUAs appears stable, despite prices trading at their lowest levels of the year. Weather conditions, a major fundamental driver, have provided clear bearish signals, encouraging further selling. However, some buying support has emerged at current price levels. A drop of more than 15 percent has attracted patient buyers waiting for a retracement. Additionally, auction results over the past week have been strong, with most clearing at a premium to the secondary market. Investment funds have also been active, with the latest CoT report showing that investors have reduced their net long exposure for a third consecutive week, now standing at 42 million tonnes—the lowest in six weeks.

German power prices are down by 2.05 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 81.00 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 102.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.495 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 33.850 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 270 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0770.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract