This newsletter was published 28.5.2025 at 17:20pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs have remained firmly above 70 EUR per tonne for quite some time. A lack of primary supply this week appears to have triggered sufficient buying interest among market participants. Interestingly, the handful of daily auctions held over the past and current weeks offered little surprise, with most clearing at prevailing spot prices. Short-term fundamentals have also provided support, as evidenced by relatively strong front-month TTF gas prices and the benchmark German power futures Cal26, which have been oscillating around 90 EUR per MWh. The weekly CoT report showed growing investor confidence in EUAs, with net long positions increasing week-on-week despite periods of volatility. For the most part, EUAs found support at key technical levels such as the 200-day moving average, while resistance emerged around 73.50 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. UKAs, on the other hand, showed the first trim in net long exposure after a prolonged buildup, according to the latest CoT report. It appears that the “buy the rumour, sell the news” principle worked well for investment funds with long exposure in UK emission allowances. Prices had risen over 30 percent since initial news broke about the British Prime Minister holding talks with EU representatives regarding ETS linkage. However, last week, when it was officially reported that the UK and EU had reached an early-stage agreement on linkage, funds began reducing their exposure, suggesting the theme may have played out, at least to some extent.

German power prices are down by 0.65 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 89.20 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 0.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 105.75 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.250 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 35.250 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 50 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1300.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract