This newsletter was published 23.7.2025 at 16:38pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs have faced downward pressure since last week, as the typically sluggish summer market continues through July. Reduced activity among market participants has led to lower liquidity, which in turn has affected auction clearings. Both Monday and Tuesday’s auctions cleared at a discount to the secondary market, indicating weaker-than-usual buying interest. This drop in demand likely contributed to the notable price decline seen yesterday, with the December 2025 futures contract trading below 69 EUR for the first time since July 1st. Additional pressure may have come from two other factors: a bearish weather forecast for the coming weeks and expectations of strong wind power generation. Another possible contributing factor is the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs. The European Union and the United States must find common ground to avoid potentially harmful outcomes for the economy. Other markets in the energy complex experienced less stress—particularly the front-year German power futures for 2026. Despite a prolonged unplanned outage at a French nuclear reactor, prices remained relatively stable, continuing a slow downward trend. Overall, EUA prices appear to be lacking a clear catalyst. However, with the compliance deadline approaching in roughly two months, and the possibility of a downward revision in auction volumes, market could see some support.

German power prices are down by 2.64 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 84.86 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 3.70 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 109.30 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.360 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 33.050 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 160 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1730.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract