This newsletter was published 03.12.2025 at 15:48pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs climbed to their highest levels since early February, with the December-2025 futures contract advancing above 83 EUR per tonne. Despite relatively mild weather conditions and largely neutral market fundamentals, carbon prices consistently found support, limiting any meaningful downside corrections. Investment funds have continued to expand their net-long exposure, which has now reached a record high of nearly 110 million tonnes. For comparison, when the market touched its current yearly high of 84.50 EUR for the December-2025 contract almost ten months ago, investor positioning was just above 60 million tonnes, according to weekly CoT data. This time, however, market participants appear more hesitant to unwind positions and lock in profits. This reluctance may stem from expectations of potentially bullish winter fundamentals and a projected tightening of EUA supply in the coming years. Meanwhile, other markets in the European energy complex have taken a notably weaker tone. Both gas and power prices retreated over the past week, creating conflicting signals for near-term direction. With only two weeks of primary supply remaining through auctions in 2025 and the most important option expiry of the year ahead, the EUA market may be increasingly vulnerable to elevated volatility in the short term.

German power prices are down by 2.10 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 85.20 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.10 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 101.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.035 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 27.590 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD up by 70 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1670.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract