This newsletter was published 4.3.2026 at 17:03pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The EU carbon market traded in a highly volatile manner in the week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply. Following a deterioration in relations between Israel, the United States and Iran, several countries became affected by the military operations, intensifying instability across the region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate concerns over global energy supply, sending shockwaves through gas and crude markets. Front-month April TTF gas futures surged from 32 EUR to above 65 EUR — a gain of more than 100 percent within days — as fears over disrupted LNG and pipeline flows intensified. Brent crude also rallied sharply, climbing more than 10 USD in two sessions amid mounting supply risk. Against this backdrop, EUAs initially found firm support at 70 EUR in the December 2026 contract. For much of the early turmoil, carbon traded in a relatively contained range, suggesting a degree of insulation from the immediate panic in broader energy markets. However, as gas prices remained elevated and supply visibility deteriorated, buyers gradually absorbed available offers. The December 2026 futures contract subsequently rallied to 74.84 EUR. The move higher appears largely driven by fuel-switching dynamics. With gas supply increasingly uncertain and prices sharply higher, expectations of a shift toward coal-fired generation strengthened, mechanically increasing carbon demand. While volatility across energy markets remains elevated, carbon’s breakout suggests that structural demand considerations are once again taking precedence over the risk aversion.

German power prices are up by 5.07 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 85.07 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 13.50 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 124.75 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 3.065 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 30.115 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 160 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1640.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract