This newsletter was published 30.10.2024 at 17:14pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The strong upward momentum in EUA prices recently eased after the December 2024 futures contract peaked at 67.75 EUR per tonne. It is notable that all markets within the European energy complex moved in tandem with EUAs, despite relatively mild weather and a stable energy supply. The impact of this rally was particularly evident in German power futures, which briefly traded above 90 EUR per MWh on several occasions. However, bearish fundamentals ultimately prevailed, and the market sold off after forming a technical double-top pattern. Underground gas storage levels remain high, with facilities currently more than 95% full. Storage levels have been well above average throughout the year, significantly shaping market sentiment in 2024. According to the latest CoT report, investment funds reduced their net short position in EUA by nearly 10 million tonnes, aligning with market expectations. As of Friday, October 24, their short exposure stands at approximately 15 million tonnes. Meanwhile, UK emission allowances encountered strong resistance around 40 GBP per tonne. However, the newly released UK auction calendar for 2025 indicates a notable reduction in primary supply, which could be interpreted as a bullish signal. Investment funds have consistently held, and even increased, their net long exposure in UKAs over the past few months.

German power prices are down by 1.49 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 88.01 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 0.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-25 contract trading at 123.75 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.600 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-25 trading at 40.150 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 80 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0860.

Price development of EUA Dec2024 futures contract