Pridobite najnovejše informacije iz trga emisijskih kuponov in se prijavite na brezplačno tedensko prejemanje novic
This newsletter was published 04.12.2024 at 16:36pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
Monday’s attempt to push EUAs above 70 EUR for the December 2024 futures contract was short-lived, as the market quickly lost confidence in holding above this level. Despite the approach of winter and significant option open interest at 70 EUR, sellers stepped in, driving prices back to the 68 EUR mark. It appears that high correlation between front-month TTF gas prices and carbon is re-emerging, as both markets have been moving in tandem. Gas prices eased slightly in the early days of the week, likely due to forecasts of higher-than-expected temperatures and increased pipeline flows from Russia to China. Reports indicate that the Siberian pipeline has been operating at maximum capacity for the first time recently, capable of supplying up to 7% of China’s winter gas demand. Despite this development, the JKM index, which tracks liquefied natural gas prices, has remained stable and supported at current levels. This suggests limited immediate downward pressure despite the pipeline news. Daily auctions offered no surprises to market participants, with most clearing at a premium to the secondary market. This typically signals underlying buying interest, a trend also reflected in the weekly CoT report. The latest report shows that investment funds have further increased their net long exposure, now reaching nearly 12 million tonnes—the largest net long position in 16 months. Interestingly, despite this continuous accumulation of long positions, there has been no significant change in market prices. Over the past four weeks, the market sentiment appears to have shifted markedly, flipping from a 10-million-tonne net short position to roughly 12 million tonnes net long.
German power prices are down by 2.05 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 95.70 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 6.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-25 contract trading at 117.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.215 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-25 trading at 44.710 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 40 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0520.
Price development of EUA Dec2024 futures contract