Pridobite najnovejše informacije iz trga emisijskih kuponov in se prijavite na brezplačno tedensko prejemanje novic
This newsletter was published 18.12.2024 at 16:07pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
As the year draws to the end, the market has remained range-bound following the recent options expiry. Volatility and liquidity have eased as we enter the annual auction pause, with activity shifting to the December 2025 futures contract, now the benchmark instrument. Over the past week, the market sold off significantly, currently trading at around 65 EUR per tonne for December 2025 futures contract, with little evidence of strong buying interest. After the options expiry, the market saw a steep decline, dropping rapidly. Historically, a lack of primary supply has tended to support prices, if not drive them higher, so a price surge remains possible. However, market fundamentals are still weak. Related markets have also been trading lower compared to the past weeks, and investment fund positioning might help moderate any major price surges. German power futures for calendar year 2025 have recently traded below 90 EUR per MWh, close to the lower band of the price range. The last time prices traded this low was in the first quarter of the year, when power futures dipped below 70 EUR per MWh. Similarly, the front-month TTF contract has experienced a sharp drop, falling from nearly 50 EUR to around 40 EUR per MWh. Meanwhile, underground gas reserves are currently at 77.5% capacity. The surplus of EUAs in the market, combined with weak demand, has likely been the main driver of bearish trends throughout the year. Unlike last year, sentiment among investment funds during the auction pause now appears more bullish, supported by a substantial net-long position during the auction pause. Auctions are scheduled to resume on January 7, with slightly lower supply in primary auctions compared to recent months. Finally, we’d like to take this opportunity to wish you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year in 2025. Please note that due to the holiday season, the next Carbon Prices newsletter will be sent during the first week of the new year.
German power prices are down by 6.95 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.30 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 5.15 USD since last week, with the Cal-25 contract trading at 109.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 2.555 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-25 trading at 40.720 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 10 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0500.
Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract