Pridobite najnovejše informacije iz trga emisijskih kuponov in se prijavite na brezplačno tedensko prejemanje novic
This newsletter was published 29.1.2025 at 17:21pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUAs continue to trade higher daily as the energy complex remains supported. The upward trend has been well established for quite some time, and several participants have pointed out that prices may have risen too much, too quickly. While this could be the case, the market continues to reach new highs, with even minor dips attracting enough buyers to prevent any significant correction. In the short term, fundamentals have been shifting from bearish to bullish and back again. However, in broader terms, they have remained relatively neutral. Investment funds have once again increased their net long positions, anticipating the continuation of the trend that has now pushed prices firmly above 80 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. Despite strong bullish sentiment among investors, some risk factors should be considered. The net long position is now the largest since 2021, currently standing well above 50 million tonnes. Political risks are also more relevant than ever, especially given recent disagreements regarding CBAM. In less than a month, Germany will hold parliamentary elections, which could lead to additional market volatility. According to Politico, the CDU/CSU party is leading the polls, with AfD in second place. The current political climate could lead to surprises that may significantly impact EUA pricing. UKAs have also been in a strong uptrend recently, largely driven by news that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is aiming to link the EU ETS with the UK ETS. UK emission allowances currently trade at a discount to EUAs, and while some expect price alignment, many analysts have pointed out that even successful negotiations and agreements could take years to be fully implemented.
German power prices are up by 2.30 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 95.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.75 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 116.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.720 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 39.885 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is unchanged since last week and is currently trading at 1.0420.
Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract