This newsletter was published 4.6.2025 at 17:27pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs continue to trade within a well-established and relatively narrow range, a pattern that has persisted since early May. Market participants appear generally reluctant to sell below the 70 EUR level, as this price point has consistently provided strong support. Notably, two recent attempts to push prices lower were met with immediate rebounds, both times stopping precisely at 70 EUR. Conversely, the market has also struggled to gain momentum above 73.50 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. This upper band has acted as a ceiling, limiting any upward breakout attempts. The most likely explanation is profit-taking by investment funds, which capitalized on recent strength. According to the latest CoT report, funds reduced their net length by approximately 1 million tonnes week-on-week—enough to keep prices anchored within the current range. Fundamentals, however, remain broadly supportive. A notable drop in primary supply last week should have theoretically provided upward pressure. Still, the lack of a strong bullish catalyst has prevented a decisive breakout. Periods of extended price consolidation like this one often end with a strong directional move. However, such moves typically require a significant shift in fundamentals to trigger one-sided momentum. Until such a catalyst emerges, EUAs could remain range bound, with occasional dips and rallies.

German power prices are down by 1.75 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.45 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 2.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 103.75 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.965 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 34.285 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 130 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1430.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract