This newsletter was published 9.7.2025 at 15:52pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Markets have entered the summer mode, and EUAs have shown no resilience against the seasonal low volatility typically observed in July. Average daily trading volumes have declined significantly, with a reduction of approximately 30 percent in comparison to June. At the same time, daily trading ranges have narrowed, with occasional volume spikes in both directions. The 70 EUR level has for now emerged as a key focal point for market participants, acting as a significant psychological and technical price threshold. Option open interest at 75 EUR strike for December 2025 expiry has remained consistently above 25 million tonnes, with a quite balanced distribution between puts and calls. With little price movement, most option strikes have seen little change during the past week as well. Implied volatility has also dropped near the record lows, which is in line with current market sentiment. Auction results over the past week have largely aligned with market expectations, clearing near prevailing spot prices without major surprises. On the fundamental side, conditions have been gradually returning to long-term averages. Temperatures—previously well above seasonal norms—have moderated, and hydrological conditions have shown slight improvement. However, forecasts still point to potential heatwaves in the coming weeks, which could boost power demand and lend support to gas, coal, and EUA markets. The latest CoT report revealed no significant shifts in positioning. Interestingly, the number of funds with open EUA positions has fallen below 400, marking the lowest participation rate in recent days.

German power prices are unchanged since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 86.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 0.60 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 113.90 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.675 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 34.400 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 50 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1710.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract