This newsletter was published 12.11.2025 at 17:10pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs continue to trade comfortably above 80 EUR again, after last week’s push to a nine-month high was swiftly reversed. The market found support around the 79 EUR level for the December 2025 futures contract, with the rebound seemingly driven by a lack of sellers and strong bids. Fundamentals have been shifting notably in recent weeks. The initial rally was sparked by a strong move toward bullish fundamentals, but momentum faded mid-week, and prices nearly reverted to their mean. By Monday afternoon, the market began to climb again, although this renewed strength was not directly triggered by one of the large auction premiums seen recently. Still, several weeks of strong auction clearings point to solid underlying demand. The latest CoT report also reflected growing confidence, showing that investment funds added nearly 1 million tonnes to their net length — the largest position in more than four years. This indicates a firm commitment among market participants to hold and even expand their exposure, with minor pullbacks failing to shake their confidence. In contrast, other markets in the European energy complex have shown less resilience. Front-month German power prices have been sliding steadily, as well as front month TTF prices. Underground gas storages remain more than 80 percent full, still well below 2023 and 2024 levels. Slight net withdrawals have already begun, but supply appears adequate for now, particularly if Europe manages to avoid a harsh winter.

German power prices are down by 1.37 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 88.95 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 2.00 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 104.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.800 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 30.125 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD up by 100 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1580.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract