This newsletter was published 10.12.2025 at 16:32pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The final options expiry of the year offered some additional volatility during the settlement window, with prices climbing by more than half a euro. EUAs ultimately settled at 82.56 per tonne, landing squarely between the two key strike levels of 80 and 85 EUR for December 2025 futures contract. Despite the recent softness in gas and power markets that has persisted for the past two weeks, EUAs appear to be holding relatively firm. This resilience can likely be attributed to a combination of neutral to supportive weather fundamentals and continued accumulation of EUAs by investment funds. The latest CoT report shows that funds now hold a net long position of more than 113 million tonnes, an increase of 3.5 million tonnes compared to the previous week. Nevertheless, fundamentals have not yet begun to shift convincingly in investors’ favour, as prices remain only slightly higher from levels observed a month ago. On the supply side, only three primary auctions remain scheduled this year, which could tighten availability through late December and into the first week of January 2026. Any potential cold spells during this period may amplify price sensitivity, making the market more prone to upward movement—assuming other conditions remain stable. European underground gas storage levels currently sit above 70 percent capacity, equating to just over 820 TWh. Although slightly below the two-year average, reserves appear adequate to meet winter demand, particularly with healthy LNG supply providing additional flow.

German power prices are down by 2.10 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 83.10 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 4.00 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 97.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.460 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 26.130 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD down by 30 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1640.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract