This newsletter was published 18.2.2026 at 17:31pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs finally found some support earlier this week after an extended sell-off pushed prices into technically oversold territory. The December 2026 EUA futures contract fell to a new yearly low at 68.11 EUR on Monday, having fallen by more than 25 EUR in only a month. Following the move, downside momentum began to ease as technical indicators signalled oversold conditions. February option expiry was quite uneventful, with contracts settling at 70.04 EUR — notably close to the psychologically important 70 EUR, a level not seen around expiry for some time. The muted price action was aligned with relatively low open interest at the strike price. Political uncertainty continues to hover over the broader direction of the EU ETS. Policymakers remain engaged in discussions aimed at finding common ground on potential adjustments to the system. While no concrete outcomes have emerged yet, the lack of clarity is maintaining a cautious tone across the market. Positioning data indicates that investment funds still hold a sizeable net long position of around 82 million tonnes. Although this reflects some reduction from previous highs, speculative length remains significant. At the same time, primary auctions continued to clear strongly, signalling underlying compliance demand. The combination of elevated fund length and firm spot demand presents a conflicting near-term picture, with positioning risks on one side and structural buying interest on the other. In the energy complex, gas and power futures remain volatile. The front-month TTF contract retreated even below 30 EUR briefly; however supply concerns have offered enough support for prices to rebound quickly.

German power prices are down by 2.25 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 79.45 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 6.35 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 110.10 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.270 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 26.675 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD down by 30 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1820.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract