This newsletter was published 12.8.2026 at 16:54 pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The carbon market remained range-bound over the past week, with the December 2026 EUA futures contract holding steadily above the 81 EUR level. Trading activity has been limited, with lower liquidity contributing to a continuation of one-sided intraday moves. Despite the lack of a clear directional move, the underlying fundamental backdrop remains supportive. The energy complex has once again become more volatile, with front-month TTF gas prices moving back above 60 EUR/MWh. The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disputed despite ongoing discussions around reopening it, keeping a significant geopolitical risk premium embedded in gas prices. Weather-related developments also remain one of the key drivers. Persistent heat and drought across Europe have pushed river levels lower, creating difficulties for logistics. At the same time, elevated river temperatures are increasingly affecting the ability of nuclear power plants to use river water for cooling, creating additional pressure on the European electricity system. These constraints can reduce available generation capacity precisely when power demand is elevated due to high temperatures, potentially supporting both power and carbon prices. Positioning has changed only marginally, with investment funds continuing to hold a sizeable net long position of roughly 44 million tonnes. Primary auctions also offered little in the way of surprises over the past week, with results broadly in line with expectations.

German power prices are up by 7.75 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 106.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 7.75 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 125.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 4.405 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 43.300 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is unchanged since last week and is currently trading at 1.1550.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract