This newsletter was published 9.9.2026 at 16:56 pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The bullish trend in EUAs continues, with the December 2026 contract breaking above 85 EUR and briefly trading beyond even 86 EUR. Despite some aggressive selling at higher levels, the market has so far managed to absorb the pressure, highlighting the resilience of underlying demand. The broader energy complex remains strongly bullish. Front-month TTF gas has breached 80 EUR/MWh, reinforcing the relative competitiveness of coal-fired generation and potentially supporting EUA demand through higher emissions intensity. At the same time, strong power prices are adding further support to the generation complex. Despite periodic waves of selling, carbon has yet to show a meaningful deterioration, suggesting that the market remains well bid even at elevated price levels. Primary market activity has also remained supportive. Auctions have consistently cleared at a premium to the secondary market, indicating continued willingness among buyers to participate despite higher prices. Options positioning could provide an additional supportive factor in the near term or at least contribute to some additional volatility. The September options expiry is now only two weeks away, with the largest concentration of open interest at the 90 EUR call strike. This could provide some additional strength on the upside as the market approaches higher levels. On the downside, the largest concentration remains at the 70 EUR put strike, with just over 8 million EUAs of open interest.

German power prices are up by 6.59 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 129,60 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 3.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 136.25 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 4.450EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 57.910 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 50 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1650.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract