This newsletter was published 1.4.2026 at 16:47pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The carbon market found renewed support this week, with prices moving higher as policy developments from Brussels came in less bearish that market might have anticipated. The December 2026 EUA futures contract is once again approaching the 75 EUR level, as sentiment improves following recent regulatory clarity. The latest proposal from the European Commission focused on increasing flexibility within the EU Emissions Trading System through adjustments to the Market Stability Reserve. The Commission proposed ending the automatic cancellation of excess permits when the MSR holds more than 400 million allowances — effectively removing the mechanism that invalidates surplus permits each year. While this would allow for a larger stock of allowances to remain in the reserve, the Commission emphasised that the proposal would not have an immediate impact on supply. Instead, it aims to create a larger buffer of permits that could be released in the future if needed. At the same time, developments in the energy complex provided an additional layer of influence. Front-month TTF gas prices retreated below 50 EUR, as geopolitical tensions showed some signs of easing following statements from Donald Trump regarding a potential ceasefire framework involving Iran. The prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening contributed to reduced supply risk premiums. Alongside TTF, power prices also declined, with benchmark German baseload futures for the calendar year falling by more than 10 percent from the peak two weeks ago. In contrast, crude oil continues to trade around 100 USD per barrel, suggesting that the broader supply shock in energy markets may not be resolved in the near term.

German power prices are down by 3.80 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 91.60 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 5.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 125.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 3.90 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 38.700 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 40 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1610.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract