This newsletter was published 17.6.2026 at 16:58pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The carbon market remained resilient over the past week, with the December 2026 EUA futures contract hovering around the 80 EUR level despite ongoing uncertainty around future free-allocation rules. After the strong move higher in recent weeks, the market has entered a more balanced phase, with participants assessing the impact of policy developments on future supply and compliance demand. The energy complex has seen a notable shift, with TTF prices extending their decline as the market continued to unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium built around potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The end of the Middle East conflict over the weekend added to the softer tone, although attention remains on whether improved geopolitical conditions translate into a sustained normalisation of energy flows. Despite weaker gas prices, EUAs remained supported as market focus shifted away from short-term fuel dynamics and toward longer-term policy developments. Market participants are now turning their attention toward the broader ETS review expected in July, as well as the upcoming quarterly option expiry scheduled for next week. In the short term, the market may experience periods of elevated volatility despite relatively balanced open interest around at-the-money strikes. However, the largest concentration of positioning for the June expiry remains at the 115 EUR strike, with over 60 million EUAs of open interest—materially higher than any other strike and standing out as a clear outlier.

German power prices are down by 3.53 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 92.25 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 11.75 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 113.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 3.405 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 34.510 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 40 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1600.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract