This newsletter was published 15.7.2026 at 17:20pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The carbon market remained resilient over the past week, with the December 2026 EUA futures contract once again trading above the 82 EUR level. Despite the move higher, price action has remained relatively indecisive as participants await the European Commission’s ETS reform proposals, expected later this week. The upcoming announcement is widely viewed as the next major catalyst for the market. Interestingly, the latest CoT report showed investment funds reducing their net long exposure, even as EUA prices continued to strengthen. This suggests that the recent rally has been supported more by underlying compliance demand than by speculative buying. Primary auctions continued to clear at a premium to the secondary market, reinforcing the view that demand remains healthy. The supply backdrop has also become more supportive. Following the conclusion of the temporary RePowerEU auction programme, weekly auction volumes have fallen again, with EU auctions now offering just over 2.2 million allowances. The broader energy complex has also strengthened. August TTF gas prices have climbed back towards 55 EUR/MWh, while German power futures have moved higher as well. Beyond the EU ETS review, market participants are also monitoring progress on linking the EU and UK emissions trading systems. Beyond the upcoming ETS review, market attention has increasingly turned to developments between the EU and the UK. According to European Commission officials, an agreement to link the two emissions trading systems is now close to completion and could be signed as early as next week, subject to the formation of the new UK government. The planned agreement was originally expected to be concluded at the EU-UK summit in July before political developments in the UK delayed the process.

German power prices are up by 7.40 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 104.00 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 6.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 120.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 4.225 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 41.700 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 30 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1440.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract