This newsletter was published 20.5.2020 at 18:11pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices have recovered after hitting the lower part of the trading channel last week. With prices now back up at the upper part of the channel, we may see some consolidation in this region before the market decides if it want to continue upwards and attack the swing highs towards 23 EUR/EUA, or return down inside the 18.50-21 EUR/EUA channel. It appears that the anticipation of the auction supply cut was just enough to move prices to the current levels. Actual supply cut only starts on Thursday and will last for three days. This could mean that buyers end up lifting the prices much faster than in the last days, so bigger moves up are possible. If the bullishness continues and prices actually breach 23 EUR/EUA, this would show a technically bullish picture and likely greatly decrease the chance to get retest of the yearly lows.

German power prices are up 2.10 EUR/MWh since last week, with the front year contract trading at 37.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices have moved up by 0.20 USD/tonne since last week, with the Cal21 contract trading at 52.90 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is up by 140 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0980.

Price development of EUA Dec2020 futures contract

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