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This newsletter was published 27.5.2020 at 18:27pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
EUA prices have stayed almost unchanged since last week. It seems that holidays and lack of auctions pushed traders to stay away from the markets as we have seen very minor day to day price changes during the last 5 days. Tight ranges were reflected in lower volumes too. It is difficult to gauge what the trigger for the next move might be in this steady market. A likely scenario is that the prices start falling back into the range which was established in early April and has held prices between 18.50 and 21.00 EUR most of the time. Most of the global equity markets have recovered nearly all of the losses since the virus outbreak started to spread more violently in EU and US in early March. Equity markets have been trending up for over 2 months now. Considering the strength and timing of the trend, a correction down could be imminent. If this materializes, it could have enough effect to pull energy markets and emissions to lower levels too. This would also coincide with the return of the full 5-day weeks of auctions starting in the second week of June and lasting until August.
German power prices are almost unchanged since last week, with the front year contract trading at 37.35 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices have moved up down by 0.50 USD/tonne since last week, with the Cal21 contract trading at 52.40 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is unchanged since last week and is currently trading at 1.0980.
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