This newsletter was published 4.11.2020 at 20:41pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices gained on broad market optimism. Since last EUA week prices rose by more than 2 EUR/EUA, crossing the all-important 25 EUR/EUA level. Equity markets have performed exceptionally well this week on what seems to be a US election rally. After a whole day of ballot counting it is still unclear who will win and final result may not be known until Friday. High gains on equity markets helped to push EUA prices up as well, as correlation between the two has been very high recently. Almost the same scenario unfolded in 2016 when stocks were falling for a few weeks before the election week but started to rise spectacularly on the election week. Price have been higher ever since. History rarely repeats itself in the same exact way. It is possible that the gains get erased and market starts falling again in the next weeks as national lockdowns are still persisting and high auction volumes weigh on EUA prices.

German power prices are up 0.85 EUR/MWh since last week, with the front year contract trading at 38.40 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down 4.5 USD/tonne since last week, with the Cal21 contract trading at 53.00 USD/tonne. EUR/USD is down 40 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1710.

Price development of EUA Dec2020 futures contract

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