Carbon Weekly Newsletter

This newsletter was published 5.7.2023 at 17:22pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs have been range bound for more than a week, with slight bearish tendencies, as markets entered a period of limited trading activity. Even though carbon trended down for three consecutive days, market found support at around 86 EUR per tonne, while sellers appeared mostly above 88 EUR respectively. The lower band of price range coincides with 200-day moving average, technical level which has provided at least some support in the past as well. July and August tend to be calmer months and at the moment it seems this year might not be exceptional in that regard. Many trading participants are attending carbon conference in Lisbon, which could affect liquidity greatly in the coming two days. Average daily trading volumes have been in decline for quite some time and the only real action picks up around auctions. Despite increased primary supply, auctions are keep clearing premium to secondary market. Cover ratios have been healthy and such interest might at least to some extent mute bearish fundamentals. Gas and power remain range bound and have been moving similarly to EUAs. Pricing of those markets might have been mostly affected by energy consumption, heat waves in summer months and precipitation.

German power prices are up by 2.00 EUR since last week, with the front year contract trading at 141.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 8.50 USD since last week, with the Cal-24 contract trading at 125.75 USD/tonne. Front year gas prices are up by 2.765 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-24 trading at 53.015 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 60 points since last week and is currently trading 1.0870.

Price development of EUA Dec2023 futures contract

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