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This newsletter was published 15.1.2024 at 17:47pm CEST
The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:
The carbon market continues to show strong bullish momentum, with other markets in the complex showing no signs of weakness. EUAs have been trading higher daily, marking today as the fifth consecutive green day. The market has firmly breached the highs of the second half of 2024 and is now targeting the peaks from last year. Significant open interest in call options suggests the potential for further upside and heightened volatility—both of which the market has experienced over the past few days. After a 10% rally from the December lows, the market is trading well above long-term moving averages and is now eyeing the €80 mark for December 2025 futures contracts. This strong upward movement may have been amplified by the substantial net long positions held by investment funds. The cost of maintaining a bullish stance during the winter appears more attractive than being neutral or short, which could explain the 29 million tonnes of net longs currently held. Such a significant net long position was last observed in late August 2022, coinciding with an all-time high in EUAs. Last week’s auctions mostly cleared near the secondary market levels, offering no substantial discounts or premiums. Despite increased volatility and larger intraday price swings, the market has shown no major surprises or unsustainable one-sided price action. This indicates that buying activity has been relatively controlled. In contrast, UKAs have shown no signs of strengthening and are currently trading below last week’s auction results. While investment funds maintain net long positions in UKAs, they have been steadily reducing their exposure for several weeks without exception.
German power prices are up by 3.70 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 93.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 110.25 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.765 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 39.150 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is unchanged since last week and is currently trading at 1.0300.
Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract