This newsletter was published 12.2.2025 at 17:55pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices are slightly lower than last week after we have seen an unsuccessful attempt to push towards the yearly highs. Prices stopped just 25 cents below the yearly peak and then turned around to approach the all-important level of 80 EUR. Prices initially dropped due to forecasts of milder weather, rebounded as gas and power prices rose, and later declined again amid speculation over Germany’s gas storage policy. Market fluctuations were driven by expectations that Germany’s gas grid operator would update its storage mandate. However, no announcement was made, leading to a sell-off. The market was also affected by geopolitical developments, including reports of Ukraine proposing a territorial exchange and the EU considering a renewed gas price cap. Additionally, uncertainty regarding new U.S. tariffs and their potential impact on EU industrial and economic recovery contributed to market ambiguity. EUA prices are now moving away from the direction of investment funds, as data revealed that funds had increased their net long position by nearly 9% to over 60 Mt. Heavy bets on rising prices have failed to drive the market upward over the last two weeks, suggesting that the current movement could be running out of steam. We may see further consolidation around 80 EUR before any significant moves occur.

German power prices are up by 0.70 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 99.60 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.75 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 113.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 1.965 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 44.110 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 60 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0360.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract