This newsletter was published 26.3.2025 at 16:31pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Volatility brought us an exciting week, and today’s options expiry can certainly be described as eventful. Just a few days ago, EUAs were trading at 74 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract, eyeing the significant 75 EUR strike level. The market attempted to reach this level three times—on three consecutive trading days—but strong selling pressure at the triple top forced buyers to retreat. This led to a sharp decline in EUAs, which fell almost in a straight line on Friday, bringing the 70 EUR strike back into focus. March options finally expired today at 70.17 EUR per EUA, triggering an afternoon rally. UKAs, on the other hand, remained unaffected by the first options expiry of the year, likely due to relatively low open interest. Auctions throughout the past week offered no real surprises, as most cleared near prevailing spot market, which has been the norm for the whole 2025 so far. The weekly CoT report also offered little in the way of surprises. Investment funds continue to maintain their bullish positions in EUAs, with net long exposure increasing slightly week-on-week to just over 33 million tonnes. Investors in UKAs have also expanded their bullish bets, now surpassing 14 million tonnes. The recent political ambition to link the UK ETS with the EU ETS may have boosted investor confidence. However, some analysts caution that such a linkage could take years to materialize.

German power prices are down by 0.94 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 85.80 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 2.50 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 106.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.055 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 35.160 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 100 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.0790.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract